* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP102013 08/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 44 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 39 44 42 36 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 43 41 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 9 8 4 12 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 1 3 1 0 2 1 2 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 38 19 22 27 40 25 36 31 63 117 163 191 N/A SST (C) 29.6 28.2 26.3 24.4 22.3 20.8 20.9 20.6 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 149 128 107 85 69 70 67 61 61 59 59 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 74 72 71 68 64 58 50 41 36 34 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 42 28 33 36 27 28 4 0 -32 -28 -39 N/A 200 MB DIV 53 27 26 21 33 2 2 -6 -15 17 24 14 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 -1 0 0 5 6 2 7 5 -6 -12 N/A LAND (KM) 84 21 -9 93 116 199 347 492 611 678 636 638 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.6 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.3 27.0 27.6 28.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.8 112.0 113.1 114.1 116.1 118.4 120.1 122.1 124.6 125.6 126.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 13 11 10 10 9 9 11 9 6 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 1 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 21 CX,CY: -14/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 4. -3. -13. -24. -37. -46. -52. -56. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##