* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * JULIETTE EP102013 08/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 43 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 43 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 44 39 30 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 7 9 8 9 12 13 17 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 1 3 0 2 0 -1 -2 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 13 22 30 45 36 46 67 81 112 140 186 211 N/A SST (C) 27.8 25.9 23.8 21.5 20.3 20.6 20.4 19.7 19.5 20.1 20.3 20.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 124 102 77 64 67 65 60 61 61 62 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 69 67 64 57 51 42 35 30 31 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 37 33 23 28 7 -2 -8 -31 -22 -17 N/A 200 MB DIV 27 26 26 28 11 -4 1 -8 1 16 25 21 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -2 -8 -2 2 10 9 8 8 2 -4 -10 N/A LAND (KM) 19 7 114 105 130 287 459 567 657 689 708 689 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.5 27.9 28.6 29.3 30.3 31.3 31.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.2 113.4 114.6 115.7 117.9 119.9 121.6 123.4 125.6 126.8 127.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 10 9 6 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 20 CX,CY: -13/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -25. -26. -27. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. -17. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -7. -18. -30. -43. -56. -65. -68. -71. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##