* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP102013 08/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 5 5 8 6 8 8 14 22 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 3 4 2 1 4 0 1 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 26 35 54 50 12 45 51 83 133 182 209 209 N/A SST (C) 25.5 23.1 20.2 19.9 20.1 19.5 19.2 19.2 19.6 20.3 19.7 19.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 95 64 62 62 61 60 60 61 64 59 58 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 65 65 57 50 44 37 32 31 32 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 27 22 15 8 -6 0 -34 -26 -33 -17 N/A 200 MB DIV 28 15 25 5 -7 -3 -4 -15 12 27 27 10 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -7 -2 4 5 9 8 6 -4 -12 -16 -19 N/A LAND (KM) 40 59 49 113 226 396 540 598 625 708 679 630 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.2 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.2 29.9 30.6 31.7 33.2 33.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.7 114.9 116.2 117.4 119.8 121.6 123.4 125.0 127.4 128.1 127.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 12 11 10 8 8 10 9 5 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 20 CX,CY: -13/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -17. -21. -24. -23. -23. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -16. -14. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -14. -20. -34. -46. -59. -67. -70. -73. -75. -80. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##