* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112013 08/31/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 36 34 30 28 26 25 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 36 34 30 28 26 25 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 8 7 11 14 11 12 6 4 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 351 345 297 293 269 232 211 196 186 182 135 111 127 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 140 136 133 124 117 115 119 121 122 123 116 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 66 65 64 63 57 52 48 47 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 2 -8 -12 -15 -3 3 14 14 8 12 27 43 200 MB DIV 53 33 7 13 13 -6 -5 -4 4 9 9 -11 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 2 10 6 LAND (KM) 792 762 730 702 675 625 595 588 617 632 647 662 680 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.5 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.3 116.5 116.6 116.6 116.7 116.8 116.8 116.9 116.9 116.9 117.1 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 4 1 16 7 0 0 0 4 7 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 ELEVEN 08/31/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 ELEVEN 08/31/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##