* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112013 08/31/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 51 50 46 40 34 29 25 23 20 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 51 50 46 40 34 29 25 23 20 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 49 48 45 41 38 35 33 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 9 9 10 8 11 4 4 6 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 -5 0 -2 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 284 273 241 231 202 190 194 197 153 145 202 208 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 132 127 116 114 112 111 107 102 93 84 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 63 60 55 50 45 41 40 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -14 -15 -6 -7 4 8 7 5 24 27 28 200 MB DIV 11 10 17 1 1 -10 -11 2 0 7 -15 -22 -17 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 6 11 18 LAND (KM) 755 729 703 671 640 588 604 605 599 591 606 636 589 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.4 116.5 116.6 116.7 116.8 117.0 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.7 118.6 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 2 1 0 1 2 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 2 11 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 0. -6. -11. -15. -17. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 ELEVEN 08/31/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 ELEVEN 08/31/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##