* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 67 67 62 53 43 34 26 20 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 67 67 62 53 43 34 26 20 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 66 67 66 59 51 44 38 33 29 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 11 10 12 9 2 3 7 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 1 -2 -3 1 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 287 276 254 238 201 194 180 141 79 92 140 181 188 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 131 128 122 114 109 106 106 104 99 93 85 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 61 62 54 51 46 47 45 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 10 8 6 4 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -12 -17 -10 -17 1 -5 2 -7 7 22 14 26 200 MB DIV 7 32 7 0 1 -14 -12 -2 7 -5 -5 -17 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 0 1 4 6 11 5 LAND (KM) 676 638 601 567 534 496 507 504 504 519 531 571 542 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.3 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.0 116.0 116.0 116.0 116.1 116.4 116.5 116.5 116.8 117.1 118.0 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 19 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 12. 7. -2. -12. -21. -29. -35. -38. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##