* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 64 61 50 40 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 64 61 50 40 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 65 62 54 45 38 33 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 9 11 10 6 6 6 7 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 1 1 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 271 247 215 190 180 176 151 110 107 109 148 196 224 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.2 25.4 25.2 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.2 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 127 123 117 110 112 109 110 107 102 92 84 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 60 61 57 53 49 47 48 47 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 15 14 12 9 7 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -4 -11 -4 1 0 3 3 16 23 22 16 200 MB DIV 28 14 11 -9 -5 -8 -7 3 22 -1 6 -6 -7 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 3 6 7 12 4 LAND (KM) 603 562 523 501 480 460 489 483 483 472 476 513 453 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.6 115.6 115.7 115.8 115.9 116.1 116.1 116.1 116.2 116.5 117.5 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 2 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 1. -10. -20. -30. -37. -42. -46. -49. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##