* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 58 54 49 37 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 58 54 49 37 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 59 57 53 45 38 32 27 23 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 9 10 9 5 6 1 3 2 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 3 1 4 -1 2 0 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 244 224 199 188 194 205 218 236 55 159 96 218 225 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.2 24.0 23.6 23.4 22.8 22.4 21.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 125 119 113 108 100 98 94 92 87 83 78 73 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 61 62 55 51 45 46 42 43 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 14 13 10 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 -10 -4 2 -7 4 -9 0 12 16 26 19 200 MB DIV 0 4 0 -6 -9 -14 -4 -5 -3 -11 -24 -18 -25 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 -1 -1 0 -2 1 2 3 9 7 2 LAND (KM) 540 502 466 451 440 420 424 420 433 405 387 407 371 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.2 23.5 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.3 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.6 115.6 115.8 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.4 116.6 117.0 118.0 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -20. -22. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -11. -23. -33. -42. -48. -52. -57. -60. -63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##