* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 36 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 36 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 39 36 31 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 8 10 9 8 3 2 1 5 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 2 2 2 0 3 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 231 209 203 199 203 222 231 251 176 233 224 227 225 SST (C) 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.3 21.8 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 111 107 102 96 93 90 88 86 82 77 72 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 60 56 52 47 45 43 42 43 42 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 12 11 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 -5 0 1 4 1 0 13 13 22 22 22 200 MB DIV -3 2 4 -16 -14 6 12 7 -5 -12 -16 -7 6 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 -2 2 1 3 3 6 7 11 6 5 LAND (KM) 489 465 445 429 416 406 407 410 406 381 364 385 349 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.5 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.7 115.8 115.9 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.3 116.5 116.9 117.9 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -16. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -19. -30. -39. -45. -49. -50. -52. -54. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##