* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 35 32 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 13 15 10 7 3 3 2 9 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 3 0 3 -1 3 -1 6 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 225 217 221 212 220 217 223 150 145 172 220 229 223 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.8 22.4 22.1 21.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 107 101 98 94 90 89 86 86 82 80 75 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 57 53 50 44 45 42 44 47 50 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -6 -5 -6 2 -7 2 14 15 39 36 34 200 MB DIV -5 -2 -31 -22 -11 0 -9 -13 -17 -19 3 -10 10 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 2 2 -1 3 3 6 14 9 11 6 LAND (KM) 468 450 434 427 420 429 421 402 396 373 377 403 379 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.8 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.1 116.1 116.2 116.2 116.4 116.4 116.4 116.6 116.8 117.3 118.4 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -24. -36. -44. -50. -53. -55. -55. -56. -58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##