* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 15 13 11 4 2 1 3 11 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 1 1 1 1 7 1 3 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 228 223 224 222 224 232 243 188 44 210 195 215 212 SST (C) 24.7 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.1 23.1 23.0 23.0 22.6 22.3 21.8 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 100 98 96 88 88 87 88 84 82 77 72 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 57 53 51 45 43 42 42 44 46 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 2 2 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -6 -8 -2 -4 -2 8 9 22 21 16 -9 200 MB DIV -10 -28 -29 -15 0 -3 3 -7 -12 -12 -2 0 -7 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 2 1 6 5 8 8 12 11 6 2 LAND (KM) 466 456 447 455 463 438 444 440 452 432 434 478 438 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.4 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.5 116.6 116.7 116.8 116.9 117.1 117.3 117.8 119.0 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -20. -30. -39. -46. -48. -48. -49. -52. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##