* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 14 11 8 2 5 2 5 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 0 3 0 6 1 5 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 210 214 220 224 234 146 202 164 175 199 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.5 22.0 22.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 102 100 99 97 94 90 84 77 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 51 50 50 43 44 40 39 40 49 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 -14 -7 1 -11 7 14 18 27 45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -28 -29 -1 3 -16 -18 -21 -26 4 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 2 1 0 5 5 7 15 19 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 463 455 447 450 453 455 434 425 453 424 408 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.6 25.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.4 116.5 116.6 116.8 117.2 118.2 118.5 118.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 4 4 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -26. -34. -40. -42. -42. -46. -46. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##