* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072013 09/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 58 63 67 67 67 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 40 45 48 48 48 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 39 44 50 55 59 52 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 5 5 4 6 9 12 13 15 17 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 4 0 2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 207 262 284 296 256 270 256 259 249 247 250 257 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 153 151 149 149 150 152 155 155 155 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 146 143 139 138 138 139 140 139 139 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 60 59 61 61 60 60 60 59 59 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 53 59 69 70 58 57 53 37 34 31 24 200 MB DIV 60 61 47 40 50 31 45 21 40 18 16 5 -1 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 3 0 0 2 2 3 1 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 200 150 133 95 88 33 -2 12 53 66 32 -11 7 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 66.8 67.7 68.6 69.4 70.8 72.2 73.4 74.6 75.3 76.0 76.5 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 33 34 37 35 19 5 44 42 44 102 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 28. 33. 37. 37. 37. 34. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 SEVEN 09/04/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 SEVEN 09/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 SEVEN 09/04/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)