* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 46 51 56 60 61 63 62 62 60 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 46 51 56 60 61 63 62 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 49 52 55 57 59 60 61 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 8 5 11 14 20 17 26 19 23 19 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 284 309 257 262 263 270 251 266 261 267 240 252 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 147 145 144 143 146 150 156 159 158 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 137 135 133 129 127 129 132 137 142 144 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 58 57 60 62 64 67 71 68 66 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 52 58 53 38 27 11 5 -10 2 -19 0 -21 200 MB DIV 45 40 64 50 30 50 47 47 38 69 41 74 40 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 2 1 5 LAND (KM) 67 17 53 49 71 145 239 362 472 613 803 1082 1344 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.7 21.8 22.9 23.8 24.9 26.3 28.3 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 67.3 67.8 68.2 68.6 69.0 69.4 69.2 68.7 67.9 66.7 64.9 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 8 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 32 14 33 26 43 56 51 47 49 47 51 39 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 25. 26. 28. 27. 27. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED