* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 38 43 49 53 55 57 57 58 56 V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 33 36 42 47 52 53 56 56 57 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 26 29 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 11 14 13 15 20 22 22 21 35 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 -1 0 0 0 3 -3 2 0 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 283 306 282 283 290 253 272 253 268 243 240 214 222 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 147 145 145 145 147 153 159 160 153 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 137 135 132 129 128 131 137 144 144 137 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 58 58 59 61 61 64 63 55 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 10 10 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 57 63 56 44 34 33 18 21 8 13 -2 9 -3 200 MB DIV 41 64 50 46 37 38 42 33 44 62 44 45 -1 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 3 5 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 85 57 -13 25 55 123 209 343 499 714 960 1255 1273 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.8 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.7 27.3 29.6 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.1 68.5 68.9 69.2 69.7 70.0 69.8 68.9 67.4 65.4 63.7 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 7 9 11 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 82 30 50 64 57 47 48 48 40 27 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)