* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122013 09/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 45 49 52 54 54 53 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 45 49 52 54 54 53 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 52 54 56 57 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 5 1 4 2 4 3 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 106 110 110 125 142 129 122 97 152 88 119 119 172 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 162 156 149 143 139 138 140 138 138 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 7 8 6 7 6 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 72 70 67 64 64 61 58 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 40 34 35 46 28 49 44 64 46 45 14 200 MB DIV 8 21 28 19 -9 9 -13 29 17 45 25 38 -10 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 231 243 264 286 331 211 167 147 147 141 144 143 162 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.0 21.5 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.3 108.9 109.9 110.6 110.8 110.8 110.7 110.9 111.1 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 5 3 1 0 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 24 13 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122013 TWELVE 09/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 TWELVE 09/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##