* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 35 38 38 41 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 35 38 38 41 41 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 19 20 15 25 24 33 33 39 39 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 1 0 2 -1 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 269 280 266 258 272 260 261 253 252 243 247 229 224 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 145 145 144 144 148 153 156 157 158 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 130 129 129 127 126 130 133 134 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 60 61 63 63 64 59 56 49 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 10 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 47 32 34 33 24 21 16 13 12 0 -10 0 -19 200 MB DIV 35 38 50 47 37 39 39 55 32 31 9 10 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -2 -3 3 0 3 1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 73 64 69 94 129 222 300 411 533 647 724 800 812 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.8 22.5 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.0 69.5 69.9 70.2 70.9 71.2 71.3 70.8 70.4 70.4 70.9 71.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 53 57 57 46 42 45 56 50 46 49 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -9. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 18. 21. 21. 21. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)