* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP122013 09/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 46 51 53 54 56 55 55 54 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 39 35 39 32 34 33 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 40 37 34 38 32 34 36 33 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 6 7 10 1 5 3 5 14 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 -2 -5 -4 -2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 246 263 262 280 280 287 284 315 199 245 209 217 212 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.6 28.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 151 149 144 141 139 138 138 143 149 144 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 68 66 63 62 59 59 56 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 33 42 41 36 52 51 65 36 39 10 16 200 MB DIV 28 3 -6 7 -6 -17 24 15 33 28 34 4 22 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 248 201 111 52 8 -7 -11 4 -10 5 20 -8 44 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.4 26.2 27.1 28.1 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.6 109.2 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.6 110.8 111.1 111.3 111.8 112.9 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 14 8 19 31 29 3 9 15 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 16. 18. 19. 21. 20. 20. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##