* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 39 39 39 37 36 34 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 39 39 39 37 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 22 20 20 24 25 30 36 40 47 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 3 -1 4 2 3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 285 274 261 276 285 250 261 243 241 227 222 210 208 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 143 143 146 150 154 157 157 156 153 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 128 127 127 129 131 135 137 134 132 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 61 62 64 66 67 63 58 53 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 27 9 1 13 0 15 13 28 16 -3 -10 200 MB DIV 34 61 55 36 39 56 45 64 44 38 3 -23 -1 700-850 TADV 2 5 0 -1 1 0 0 2 0 -2 1 -2 7 LAND (KM) 145 154 175 194 226 332 431 571 718 868 975 1019 887 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.7 23.6 24.8 26.0 27.2 28.2 29.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 68.5 68.8 69.2 69.5 69.8 69.9 69.2 68.3 67.5 67.5 67.9 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 47 52 55 53 59 72 62 46 45 38 36 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -9. -13. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 19. 19. 17. 16. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/06/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)