* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP122013 09/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 46 49 52 55 56 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 35 37 34 38 40 34 31 29 28 31 30 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 32 36 38 33 30 28 28 31 34 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 3 5 9 3 5 1 9 7 15 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 257 262 265 279 269 329 294 209 263 211 235 202 218 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 27.0 27.3 28.3 29.0 28.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 145 141 136 132 128 130 134 144 152 151 164 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 7 5 7 5 7 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 67 63 61 60 58 56 52 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 47 46 33 36 39 45 30 30 17 22 -2 200 MB DIV -5 0 6 -4 -25 14 5 26 13 37 23 8 0 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 141 54 -8 3 5 -5 -31 -40 -39 9 38 22 42 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.3 24.9 25.6 26.0 26.8 27.4 28.2 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.6 110.1 110.5 110.8 111.2 111.6 111.7 111.7 111.7 111.8 112.6 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 4 4 3 4 2 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 1 2 2 19 28 18 22 18 25 16 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##