* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP122013 09/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 47 49 52 53 52 51 49 50 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 43 47 35 31 35 34 32 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 42 43 44 34 30 34 38 42 46 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 6 8 11 13 6 8 8 11 18 25 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 4 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 253 260 259 263 281 297 301 259 265 208 217 208 N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.8 27.6 28.6 28.7 30.5 30.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 135 132 128 127 129 138 149 150 167 165 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 7 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 67 66 64 63 60 59 53 52 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 48 45 36 35 47 44 44 27 35 17 15 N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -3 -13 -13 -9 20 7 25 27 33 3 4 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -2 -2 0 2 N/A LAND (KM) 33 34 43 37 32 0 -40 -21 17 11 9 1 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.6 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.3 29.6 29.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.7 111.7 111.9 112.8 112.7 112.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 3 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 7 3 2 1 26 15 28 8 12 19 13 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##