* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 28 31 34 34 34 32 34 34 36 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 28 31 34 34 34 32 34 34 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 20 17 21 24 28 32 40 35 38 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 265 276 280 268 253 254 239 243 236 236 227 211 199 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 146 151 157 159 158 156 153 147 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 128 129 129 132 136 137 135 132 129 123 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 63 64 64 63 61 59 56 54 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 -5 0 12 0 16 18 34 9 -12 -20 -45 200 MB DIV 41 43 40 66 53 31 53 46 21 26 17 25 3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 2 1 5 -1 LAND (KM) 208 230 268 321 375 471 617 752 884 898 769 630 482 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.0 25.3 26.5 27.7 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.2 69.6 69.8 70.0 70.3 70.1 69.9 69.9 70.4 71.1 72.1 73.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 49 53 58 60 50 40 36 40 40 33 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -2. -8. -15. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 14. 12. 14. 14. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)