* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082013 09/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 48 53 59 63 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 13 16 16 20 16 10 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -3 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 302 314 318 314 323 317 325 335 351 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 164 163 163 164 163 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 147 147 146 145 142 143 145 143 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 11 8 11 8 11 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 82 82 79 78 76 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 21 21 26 39 55 59 51 57 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 45 23 5 27 11 29 12 39 18 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -71 -126 -184 -245 -306 -282 -259 -237 -178 -155 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.6 19.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.1 100.6 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.9 101.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 3 1 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 23. 28. 34. 38. 41. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082013 EIGHT 09/07/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082013 EIGHT 09/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082013 EIGHT 09/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED