* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP122013 09/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 38 38 39 38 34 29 25 24 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 39 38 38 38 37 34 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 39 37 36 35 33 28 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 13 8 6 1 5 7 16 20 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -1 1 0 -2 0 0 5 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 270 267 274 289 327 321 20 280 179 220 205 216 N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.5 23.5 23.6 24.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 127 123 120 119 118 116 116 95 95 106 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 6 4 6 4 6 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 59 58 55 52 48 43 42 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 32 34 43 40 53 26 25 -8 0 -18 N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -10 -15 -3 12 0 20 22 23 5 14 2 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 2 N/A LAND (KM) 63 72 77 76 75 46 18 25 47 38 -55 -63 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.6 25.1 25.7 26.4 27.5 27.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.3 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.1 112.2 112.4 112.6 113.7 113.8 113.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 3 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122013 LORENA 09/07/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 LORENA 09/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##