* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 36 35 36 37 39 41 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 35 36 35 36 37 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 24 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 22 17 21 25 22 32 35 31 27 26 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 1 -1 0 0 2 1 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 278 284 271 257 263 245 254 237 244 225 229 208 205 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 147 149 153 157 158 157 155 151 143 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 128 128 130 133 136 135 133 131 128 121 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 65 65 66 67 66 61 58 51 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -1 10 -2 -6 -3 7 -10 -4 -48 -44 -68 200 MB DIV 42 53 61 53 44 35 40 44 5 32 14 15 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 11 4 LAND (KM) 284 327 375 419 463 574 705 853 962 948 794 613 425 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.8 25.9 27.2 28.2 29.3 30.3 31.5 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.9 69.1 69.1 69.1 69.0 68.4 68.1 68.1 68.8 69.9 71.2 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 51 60 67 70 58 45 42 37 33 32 26 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -2. -8. -13. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 15. 16. 17. 19. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED