* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 38 41 43 42 42 43 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 38 41 43 42 42 43 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 20 23 22 24 26 35 31 32 25 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 -1 0 2 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 285 275 256 259 262 241 253 229 224 226 221 227 210 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 151 153 157 157 155 151 149 143 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 130 131 133 137 135 131 127 125 119 113 109 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 63 64 65 62 61 57 52 51 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 14 7 -5 15 10 22 -1 -30 -45 -68 -52 200 MB DIV 42 71 58 45 24 49 49 22 14 5 11 -16 27 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 7 1 4 LAND (KM) 352 404 458 508 559 701 855 1002 974 843 691 543 410 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.9 27.2 28.5 29.6 30.6 31.6 32.7 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 69.3 69.4 69.4 69.3 68.6 68.0 67.7 68.1 68.9 70.0 71.0 71.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 57 66 70 67 60 45 43 35 34 24 20 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -7. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 17. 17. 18. 21. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)