* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 39 41 45 47 46 46 45 46 48 50 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 39 41 45 47 46 46 45 46 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 36 38 40 43 45 46 47 48 50 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 23 21 19 26 27 30 29 23 20 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 274 266 264 262 254 254 232 241 226 244 228 263 256 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 155 157 159 157 155 153 150 143 137 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 132 134 136 137 133 130 128 124 119 113 109 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 65 64 64 62 56 53 47 50 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 -7 -8 0 4 8 -14 -5 -56 -56 -73 -65 200 MB DIV 67 54 39 32 47 23 55 5 27 2 -8 -2 26 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 2 3 6 2 8 LAND (KM) 439 482 525 582 640 773 911 1016 924 815 691 591 563 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.4 26.5 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 69.3 69.3 69.2 69.0 68.3 67.9 68.1 68.7 69.5 70.3 70.8 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 66 62 54 48 44 40 34 31 26 21 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 16. 16. 15. 16. 18. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/07/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)