* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 41 39 35 34 35 39 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 41 39 35 34 35 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 37 36 36 37 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 24 21 28 33 39 35 34 27 18 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 259 258 254 248 239 236 223 214 205 188 198 189 223 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 159 159 157 154 153 150 144 140 134 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 135 138 137 133 129 128 127 122 117 111 106 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 62 61 56 55 49 44 45 42 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -6 4 12 12 13 -19 -58 -54 -81 -63 -61 200 MB DIV 53 46 37 44 51 28 9 8 -1 9 -14 21 25 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 3 2 0 -1 2 0 9 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 549 598 648 717 787 923 1007 897 766 594 413 262 239 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.9 28.8 29.5 30.2 31.1 32.2 33.4 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 69.2 69.2 69.0 68.7 68.4 68.5 69.3 70.4 71.9 73.3 74.2 73.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 6 6 6 4 6 7 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 53 49 45 42 41 37 32 31 30 27 22 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -6. -12. -16. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 5. 4. 5. 9. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/08/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)