* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP122013 09/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 8 4 6 7 12 11 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 304 316 322 25 272 187 227 214 207 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.7 24.5 23.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 115 117 117 115 117 105 96 107 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 58 57 54 51 42 36 34 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 30 43 56 41 40 7 7 -5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 22 0 3 19 16 44 1 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 57 56 56 62 68 56 56 101 143 88 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.7 25.4 25.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.3 112.4 112.3 112.1 112.4 112.4 113.3 113.6 113.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 0 2 0 1 2 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122013 LORENA 09/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 LORENA 09/08/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##