* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 40 42 39 39 41 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 40 42 39 39 41 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 31 34 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 24 26 32 34 36 29 20 16 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 1 -5 0 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 256 241 235 235 218 216 206 207 215 232 242 271 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 159 158 153 148 143 140 135 133 131 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 139 136 130 123 118 115 110 108 108 109 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 62 61 60 53 50 45 43 38 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -10 4 4 9 -11 -25 -67 -79 -88 -88 -72 200 MB DIV 46 43 49 52 50 44 25 18 -4 17 -6 3 22 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 0 3 2 1 5 5 LAND (KM) 596 672 749 831 913 1093 1051 974 897 821 785 852 909 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.7 26.3 27.0 27.6 29.1 30.1 31.1 31.9 32.8 33.5 34.2 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 68.7 68.4 67.9 67.4 66.7 66.6 66.8 67.2 67.6 67.7 66.7 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 43 44 45 40 28 25 13 12 13 16 22 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 15. 17. 14. 14. 16. 19. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/08/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)