* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092013 09/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 60 75 89 101 107 105 99 89 80 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 53 60 75 89 101 107 105 99 89 80 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 44 49 55 68 83 91 90 83 75 67 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 8 7 7 6 4 8 7 14 21 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -3 0 2 4 11 SHEAR DIR 63 70 61 60 51 72 157 148 202 227 250 254 250 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 141 136 129 121 113 109 108 108 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 137 138 137 128 121 113 105 100 96 95 95 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -52.6 -53.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 80 78 75 74 73 60 50 42 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 21 22 24 27 30 34 35 35 33 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 80 93 112 124 124 143 129 148 153 157 111 87 71 200 MB DIV 29 57 89 96 108 121 84 112 90 57 13 -12 -27 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 11 9 12 2 LAND (KM) 543 637 733 848 963 1128 1195 1294 1386 1451 1501 1586 1681 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.6 15.9 17.5 19.5 21.2 22.7 23.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.3 26.4 28.0 28.6 29.3 30.2 31.0 31.5 32.3 33.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 7 8 10 10 9 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 16 15 13 10 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 40. 54. 66. 72. 70. 64. 54. 45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 NINE 09/09/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 NINE 09/09/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED