* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 62 69 75 87 94 95 92 84 72 59 49 V (KT) LAND 50 55 62 69 75 87 94 95 92 84 72 59 49 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 61 66 71 80 84 81 74 66 59 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 3 5 9 14 17 26 31 37 41 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 1 -1 -6 -2 -1 0 0 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 62 59 56 68 70 144 171 195 233 246 245 236 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 134 130 127 118 110 108 106 105 108 111 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 128 123 120 111 102 99 96 94 96 97 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 74 70 71 66 58 44 36 31 28 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 27 27 29 32 33 33 31 28 24 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 133 129 143 146 144 140 142 133 114 82 75 53 36 200 MB DIV 60 73 85 89 83 110 128 102 50 -4 20 3 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 12 11 4 8 2 LAND (KM) 889 972 1055 1111 1170 1253 1307 1326 1371 1481 1671 1849 2026 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.3 17.0 19.3 21.4 23.3 24.8 25.9 26.4 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.5 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.2 31.1 32.8 34.5 36.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 25. 37. 44. 45. 42. 34. 22. 9. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 10( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)