* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 44 47 51 52 51 54 59 58 42 27 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 44 47 51 52 51 54 59 51 35 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 41 43 46 48 50 54 55 46 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 22 23 19 28 24 25 23 31 51 82 84 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -5 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 3 -9 -4 SHEAR DIR 223 211 226 247 249 260 272 285 266 220 223 251 286 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 25.9 19.0 11.7 10.6 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 136 133 131 129 128 132 117 83 73 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 122 114 110 107 105 104 111 102 78 71 70 69 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 -53.9 -54.8 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 48 43 41 45 44 44 41 49 53 56 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 14 14 14 14 12 11 12 17 21 14 8 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -32 -62 -77 -67 -92 -89 -69 38 114 12 -47 -2 200 MB DIV 15 9 -23 -4 0 -26 8 31 66 83 36 -39 -86 700-850 TADV 15 11 6 5 3 -4 1 6 18 -18 -55 -120 -9 LAND (KM) 1187 1132 1086 1046 1007 925 835 686 469 142 35 624 1321 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.1 32.1 32.7 33.2 34.2 34.9 36.5 39.3 43.8 49.9 54.7 58.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.8 66.3 66.1 64.9 61.3 55.0 46.7 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 5 5 6 11 21 32 36 34 32 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 17 18 21 21 20 17 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 0. 4. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 17. 16. 19. 24. 23. 7. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)