* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 70 75 82 85 82 77 71 60 51 44 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 70 75 82 85 82 77 71 60 51 44 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 67 71 77 77 73 67 61 56 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 1 5 9 16 19 23 25 26 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 1 0 4 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 28 11 13 60 128 170 199 222 248 248 253 259 269 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.7 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 128 123 118 111 108 106 106 106 110 114 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 120 116 111 103 99 96 94 94 98 101 104 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 71 69 62 49 42 35 33 34 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 26 27 29 31 31 29 27 25 21 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 128 130 129 117 112 130 119 98 69 56 40 29 10 200 MB DIV 60 79 64 59 64 126 74 70 8 -5 -1 -18 -20 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 4 7 11 14 5 7 0 0 LAND (KM) 1066 1117 1170 1206 1247 1323 1308 1357 1439 1582 1760 1962 2184 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 16.0 16.7 18.6 20.8 22.6 24.0 24.9 25.4 25.6 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.8 32.1 33.8 35.8 38.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 8 8 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 27. 30. 27. 22. 16. 5. -4. -11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)