* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 72 76 80 82 78 72 62 52 45 41 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 72 76 80 82 78 72 62 52 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 71 75 77 75 69 63 57 53 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 5 7 14 13 19 22 26 26 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -3 0 0 2 0 7 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 21 16 28 108 150 179 211 240 237 249 252 250 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 124 119 116 109 107 106 106 111 115 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 116 111 108 101 97 95 95 100 105 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 71 72 65 56 45 40 36 33 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 26 27 29 29 30 28 26 22 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 143 137 119 127 138 124 130 86 69 46 33 26 3 200 MB DIV 75 64 50 62 103 128 109 -2 -33 -37 -22 -10 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 4 5 13 10 6 0 -3 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 1117 1165 1215 1250 1290 1315 1337 1398 1497 1684 1937 2192 2438 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.3 19.4 21.2 22.7 23.8 24.3 24.3 24.6 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.5 31.4 33.2 35.7 38.2 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 10 9 7 7 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 18. 12. 2. -8. -15. -19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)