* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 51 51 51 55 57 53 37 27 17 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 51 51 51 55 57 41 30 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 54 55 57 59 61 58 41 41 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 21 20 27 23 27 23 36 51 81 90 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -7 -2 -3 -2 -5 0 2 8 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 252 253 252 267 276 267 244 208 216 240 260 269 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 24.8 18.3 13.1 10.5 8.4 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 132 130 129 129 132 107 80 73 71 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 108 106 105 107 112 95 75 71 69 66 64 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 48 48 47 49 46 51 51 48 39 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 8 11 13 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -83 -76 -90 -99 -82 -49 44 117 42 -7 -20 21 200 MB DIV -45 -21 -5 1 -18 12 39 58 78 48 -4 -29 -13 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 0 -4 1 8 30 2 67 -23 -85 65 LAND (KM) 1094 1054 1015 978 944 846 644 401 95 -37 490 1023 1367 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.4 33.8 34.8 36.7 39.9 44.2 49.2 54.4 57.9 58.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.6 65.8 66.3 66.6 65.1 61.5 56.0 48.7 41.9 36.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 8 13 21 28 33 30 20 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 21 22 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -23. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -2. -1. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 3. -13. -23. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED