* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 76 79 77 70 59 48 39 33 31 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 76 79 77 70 59 48 39 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 68 71 74 75 71 64 57 52 48 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 2 7 9 16 18 19 28 29 30 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 5 9 4 0 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 358 359 63 143 171 199 234 238 243 249 239 250 248 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 119 115 112 108 106 106 109 114 117 119 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 112 108 104 99 96 95 97 103 107 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 74 71 63 53 46 40 38 38 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 28 29 29 31 30 28 23 18 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 129 113 120 126 125 122 102 73 56 43 33 20 19 200 MB DIV 60 47 62 99 128 110 54 -10 -33 -28 -4 -2 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 6 9 9 9 0 0 -6 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1159 1194 1234 1262 1298 1301 1338 1433 1581 1806 2109 2394 2403 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.5 18.4 20.4 22.1 23.4 24.1 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.8 32.2 34.4 37.4 40.2 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 10 8 7 8 12 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 17. 10. -1. -12. -21. -27. -29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)