* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/11/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 43 44 45 52 49 39 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 43 44 45 52 49 36 23 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 44 47 51 53 51 40 36 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 24 24 20 21 29 52 58 77 88 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -5 -4 -7 -3 -1 2 10 7 3 5 14 SHEAR DIR 254 258 257 275 290 281 265 213 212 230 257 261 259 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 21.2 16.1 8.6 9.4 9.5 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 131 129 130 129 89 77 71 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 108 107 106 109 112 82 74 70 69 66 65 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -53.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 47 48 47 48 49 51 53 53 44 40 46 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 12 14 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -78 -89 -101 -93 -79 23 98 80 -25 -45 34 38 200 MB DIV -22 11 7 -30 0 7 55 87 70 38 -8 0 -19 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -4 1 8 12 15 49 59 -9 -79 -70 LAND (KM) 1034 996 958 909 860 793 560 229 55 255 903 1487 1246 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.7 33.1 33.5 33.9 35.1 37.7 41.8 47.0 51.8 55.7 58.7 59.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.7 65.9 66.3 66.7 66.9 66.4 63.9 59.1 51.8 42.6 34.1 27.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 9 18 27 32 34 30 22 17 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 22 27 27 21 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -9. -15. -23. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 0. 2. -2. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 7. 4. -6. -18. -27. -36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED