* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 69 71 73 70 61 51 42 36 32 33 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 69 71 73 70 61 51 42 36 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 65 67 69 69 65 59 54 49 45 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 8 12 13 18 20 27 28 29 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 1 0 5 7 12 4 2 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 349 349 113 168 186 212 227 231 241 249 261 260 265 SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 116 112 109 107 106 108 112 115 119 121 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 112 109 104 101 97 95 97 102 105 109 110 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 72 69 63 53 49 44 41 45 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 29 29 29 30 29 25 21 17 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 117 115 107 106 70 53 41 24 21 10 29 200 MB DIV 56 58 98 124 116 108 25 -36 -20 -15 3 7 33 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 7 8 17 12 13 2 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1204 1227 1256 1292 1288 1307 1365 1503 1719 1975 2261 2429 2331 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.9 22.2 23.1 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.6 30.2 31.5 33.6 36.1 38.9 41.7 44.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 8 7 9 11 12 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 10. 1. -9. -18. -24. -28. -27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED