* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 37 38 41 49 48 42 35 38 36 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 37 38 41 49 39 35 29 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 36 36 38 42 46 39 38 37 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 25 20 15 15 29 40 62 52 40 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -7 -6 -2 0 4 7 1 4 5 8 SHEAR DIR 250 253 269 284 293 289 250 192 213 236 245 238 240 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.5 19.5 13.7 8.2 10.8 9.8 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 131 131 131 123 84 73 67 68 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 107 107 107 112 109 78 70 66 66 65 66 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 -55.7 -57.6 -57.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 49 49 49 55 56 53 45 53 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 13 14 13 10 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -93 -106 -96 -94 -47 35 102 32 -53 -30 33 51 200 MB DIV 16 3 -15 12 8 15 68 85 58 46 32 16 49 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -6 0 0 6 19 -6 -14 7 1 3 -32 LAND (KM) 999 961 923 884 846 759 523 175 -88 268 650 1046 1434 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.8 35.4 38.8 43.4 48.9 52.5 54.4 55.4 54.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.0 66.3 66.6 66.9 67.0 65.1 61.6 56.8 51.8 46.2 40.2 34.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 6 13 23 30 28 21 18 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 27 32 31 21 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 1. 1. 0. -3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 9. 8. 2. -5. -2. -4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED