* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 33 37 47 50 43 37 39 37 27 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 33 37 47 50 39 33 35 33 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 31 31 31 34 39 42 36 33 32 34 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 17 13 11 18 37 59 72 56 40 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -4 -2 -2 7 7 2 -7 -2 9 2 SHEAR DIR 254 275 282 288 282 255 200 203 228 239 239 229 251 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 24.3 17.7 10.8 9.9 9.2 9.4 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 133 131 131 134 105 80 71 68 66 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 108 108 110 115 95 75 69 66 65 64 66 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -55.3 -56.8 -57.7 -56.6 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 50 50 52 55 59 51 55 54 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 13 15 10 10 15 16 9 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -96 -87 -85 -78 2 68 71 -14 -39 16 40 21 200 MB DIV 13 -13 1 12 3 55 93 77 59 22 35 56 24 700-850 TADV -1 -5 0 2 8 13 39 70 74 -14 -17 -52 -37 LAND (KM) 951 913 874 835 799 651 363 42 44 422 816 1168 1496 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.6 34.2 36.5 40.3 45.2 50.9 54.6 56.2 56.6 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.6 66.9 67.1 67.3 66.9 64.6 60.6 55.3 49.9 44.3 38.6 33.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 9 16 25 31 29 21 16 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 29 34 28 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 0. -8. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 2. 4. -1. -2. 3. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 12. 15. 8. 2. 4. 2. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED