* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 81 79 73 62 52 40 30 23 20 25 V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 81 79 73 62 52 40 30 23 20 25 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 80 77 74 68 62 57 52 48 44 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 16 13 20 22 30 34 36 30 31 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 6 0 8 2 1 0 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 210 188 209 199 212 229 236 241 245 259 261 257 242 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 109 108 107 107 107 112 117 118 120 125 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 100 98 97 96 97 102 106 107 108 113 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 64 63 57 50 46 44 46 47 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 29 29 30 29 28 24 21 18 15 14 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 118 118 111 114 107 74 54 43 34 27 14 19 25 200 MB DIV 87 111 124 114 114 47 4 10 4 6 3 1 50 700-850 TADV 6 7 8 11 17 13 11 5 4 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1273 1307 1294 1298 1307 1367 1518 1755 2038 2303 2509 2398 2158 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.0 22.5 23.9 24.3 24.2 24.4 25.2 25.9 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 30.2 31.6 33.9 36.7 39.3 41.3 43.9 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 11 12 11 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 12 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 4. -2. -13. -23. -35. -45. -52. -55. -50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 7( 19) 4( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)