* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/12/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 32 34 43 49 43 36 30 26 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 32 34 43 45 37 29 24 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 31 35 33 34 30 28 28 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 13 11 32 46 62 86 93 77 64 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -5 -2 2 10 8 -9 -11 1 2 10 SHEAR DIR 292 267 265 280 255 206 205 220 256 268 265 261 284 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.4 20.9 16.4 8.6 9.4 9.0 9.6 10.7 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 131 135 132 88 77 71 70 67 65 66 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 111 116 116 81 74 69 68 66 63 64 66 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.8 -54.8 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 49 55 57 56 43 44 43 48 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 10 14 10 9 13 16 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -81 -64 -28 17 88 76 -15 -30 -9 7 9 24 200 MB DIV 4 21 7 43 64 83 69 22 -18 -12 7 -14 -25 700-850 TADV 1 4 11 6 14 0 24 -47 -68 -16 1 -8 -33 LAND (KM) 823 777 733 693 560 216 11 95 736 1284 1543 1262 1024 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.8 34.3 35.8 37.3 41.6 47.0 51.9 56.6 59.6 60.3 59.1 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 67.7 68.0 67.6 67.2 64.9 60.5 54.2 46.0 38.5 32.7 28.3 25.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 10 15 19 27 32 33 29 20 13 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 31 20 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 4. -5. -17. -26. -34. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 4. 1. -1. 3. 5. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 13. 19. 13. 6. 1. -4. -11. -23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)