* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 71 67 61 52 39 28 21 20 20 19 22 V (KT) LAND 75 74 71 67 61 52 39 28 21 20 20 19 22 V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 71 68 64 59 53 49 44 40 38 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 20 20 24 26 34 42 37 30 29 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 4 0 7 2 -2 0 3 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 208 204 225 236 249 238 241 250 265 253 256 256 272 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 106 106 106 108 111 115 118 119 122 127 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 96 96 95 97 100 104 106 106 107 110 113 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 60 53 50 45 42 42 43 43 47 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 30 29 26 25 19 16 14 15 18 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 98 103 90 72 55 49 37 27 24 20 33 21 20 200 MB DIV 98 88 79 33 11 3 0 3 12 36 15 12 6 700-850 TADV 10 16 24 22 19 10 4 6 2 3 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1246 1262 1285 1330 1380 1530 1747 1994 2251 2475 2460 2327 2175 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.3 23.0 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.2 27.0 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.9 30.3 31.7 33.8 36.2 38.7 40.9 42.7 44.2 45.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 11 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 10 24 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -15. -17. -16. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -14. -23. -36. -47. -54. -55. -55. -56. -53. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED