* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 50 53 45 36 32 36 34 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 50 49 41 32 28 31 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 38 33 29 27 29 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 15 17 44 70 79 65 49 29 30 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -4 -3 -1 6 4 -7 0 8 9 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 263 263 262 251 226 201 209 231 234 231 238 287 N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 26.1 17.6 13.9 7.5 10.3 9.4 11.2 13.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 132 134 119 79 73 67 67 67 69 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 113 118 106 75 70 66 66 66 67 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -54.3 -54.4 -55.0 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -54.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 55 55 58 51 46 53 57 53 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 12 14 9 8 11 17 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -64 -34 12 51 128 56 -22 12 22 40 38 N/A 200 MB DIV 20 17 28 61 69 71 52 29 41 50 52 -12 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 11 6 13 17 6 14 -3 -13 -21 -17 -11 N/A LAND (KM) 791 759 736 600 463 105 83 64 478 903 1337 1155 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.4 35.1 36.9 38.7 43.5 49.2 53.0 54.8 55.7 54.8 54.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 67.7 67.8 67.2 66.6 63.7 59.5 54.9 49.1 42.6 35.6 27.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 13 19 22 30 28 21 19 19 22 23 N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 28 29 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 0. -11. -19. -23. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 3. 4. 0. -2. 1. 7. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 20. 23. 15. 6. 2. 6. 4. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED