* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 68 63 58 46 34 26 25 24 22 25 29 V (KT) LAND 75 73 68 63 58 46 34 26 25 24 22 25 29 V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 69 65 62 56 52 48 45 42 41 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 22 21 23 29 40 38 30 30 30 28 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 2 2 3 -5 -1 2 4 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 230 234 251 255 242 239 249 254 257 248 261 255 262 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 105 105 105 108 112 116 120 123 126 131 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 96 95 94 94 97 100 105 107 107 108 112 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 57 52 49 45 41 41 41 41 42 47 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 32 29 28 27 23 19 17 19 20 19 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 101 91 70 55 58 48 29 19 25 31 29 35 42 200 MB DIV 81 97 52 14 5 -4 -10 0 41 27 14 32 0 700-850 TADV 24 28 29 23 23 5 8 3 7 3 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 1243 1268 1299 1370 1444 1637 1835 2081 2358 2374 2278 2172 2058 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.4 25.2 25.7 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.9 28.5 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.3 29.5 30.2 30.8 32.6 34.5 36.9 39.6 41.6 42.8 44.1 45.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 11 8 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 9 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -17. -18. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -16. -14. -13. -14. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -12. -17. -29. -41. -49. -50. -51. -53. -50. -46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)