* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 50 58 50 49 48 45 45 42 40 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 45 50 48 39 40 38 35 36 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 46 41 36 33 30 31 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 14 26 44 48 30 22 12 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -4 -1 4 10 7 7 7 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 264 248 224 205 208 222 240 249 247 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 26.9 24.0 17.1 13.5 8.8 11.6 11.5 12.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 135 127 103 77 71 68 70 70 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 111 116 113 94 73 68 67 67 68 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -54.9 -54.6 -55.2 -56.5 -56.8 -57.5 -57.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 57 59 57 56 50 53 55 59 57 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 7 10 15 7 9 11 12 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -42 2 38 70 69 -4 -55 -42 -30 -30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 27 50 69 92 75 83 48 51 33 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 5 7 14 18 54 67 10 15 -2 -50 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 751 732 655 504 378 -22 -17 269 756 1286 1138 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.1 36.1 38.1 40.1 45.6 49.3 51.7 53.5 53.9 54.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.9 67.9 67.8 66.8 65.8 62.1 57.8 51.6 44.5 36.4 27.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 16 21 26 27 23 23 23 25 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 29 20 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 15. 14. 13. 10. 10. 7. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED