* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 63 56 45 35 28 27 26 32 35 42 V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 63 56 45 35 28 27 26 32 35 42 V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 69 66 62 57 54 50 48 47 48 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 22 27 33 35 37 23 26 19 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 1 0 -3 0 1 5 0 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 242 252 256 243 234 244 244 251 237 252 215 249 241 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 105 106 106 110 114 119 123 128 131 137 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 94 95 95 98 102 106 108 110 111 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.8 -54.4 -55.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 53 51 47 44 40 37 41 39 42 41 44 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 28 27 25 23 20 17 16 17 18 23 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 84 65 48 47 38 24 13 15 18 18 27 23 21 200 MB DIV 81 62 44 15 6 -1 7 13 32 19 27 4 28 700-850 TADV 31 27 22 23 12 8 7 3 3 0 4 3 7 LAND (KM) 1254 1310 1369 1462 1556 1758 1977 2216 2365 2221 2104 1966 1803 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.8 26.4 27.1 28.0 28.7 29.4 30.4 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.6 30.1 31.0 31.8 33.7 35.8 38.1 40.3 42.1 43.3 44.3 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 9 8 8 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -16. -15. -15. -9. -9. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -19. -30. -40. -47. -48. -49. -43. -40. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)