* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102013 09/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 44 49 51 56 59 62 65 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 44 49 51 56 59 62 45 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 43 47 51 58 66 50 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 14 18 18 15 6 5 7 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 -3 -1 -5 0 -2 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 264 244 242 230 222 240 236 285 297 294 263 287 261 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 154 154 153 155 159 159 158 157 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 140 137 136 134 133 136 143 142 139 138 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 8 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 79 79 81 83 84 82 84 85 85 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 12 10 10 10 11 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 99 91 103 107 103 117 100 116 92 95 92 98 88 200 MB DIV 106 78 74 52 59 90 108 104 124 99 74 67 49 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 0 0 0 2 -2 -3 -12 -4 -1 4 LAND (KM) 148 150 136 135 134 137 148 142 93 40 -61 -194 -337 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 3 2 1 1 2 6 7 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 17 17 17 17 18 22 29 25 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 34. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 TEN 09/12/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 TEN 09/12/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 TEN 09/12/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)