* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 45 49 50 48 45 48 49 48 45 41 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 45 49 45 35 35 37 39 37 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 40 34 31 32 31 34 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 26 52 52 30 22 16 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 4 6 7 1 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 247 216 194 194 208 207 229 263 247 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.1 23.7 18.4 17.1 14.7 10.0 13.7 12.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 129 101 79 75 72 68 72 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 117 114 92 74 70 68 67 69 68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.0 -54.3 -54.4 -55.5 -56.1 -56.2 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 58 61 58 53 53 49 45 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 11 12 12 9 8 13 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -1 32 66 122 93 34 17 23 30 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 53 67 87 81 96 87 83 63 66 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 9 19 20 -1 99 12 12 28 -23 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 715 653 521 368 115 11 -86 210 715 1276 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 36.3 37.8 40.2 42.6 45.9 48.4 50.4 51.5 52.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.1 67.6 67.0 65.9 64.8 61.8 57.1 51.1 44.0 36.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 21 25 23 20 21 22 24 25 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 20 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. 4. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 15. 13. 10. 13. 14. 13. 10. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/13/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/13/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/13/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED